📈 Aartha Weekly Market Newsletter - Jan 25th, 2026

Date: Recap of Week Jan 19 – Jan 23, 2026

The week of the one-year anniversary of the Second Inauguration was anything but a celebration of stability. While the indices attempted to hold onto their 2026 gains, the "Greenland Grapple"—President Trump’s continued pressure on NATO allies regarding the acquisition of Greenland—introduced a fresh layer of geopolitical risk that rattled global debt markets. We saw a stark divergence between a surging "Hard Asset" complex and a wavering equity tape as the S&P 500 struggled to maintain its 6,900 handle.

🏆 Top Performers & Signal Updates

*Calculated based on the Jan 23rd closing prices.

🌐 U.S. Markets: The Anniversary Volatility

Equities spent the week under pressure as the "Trump Trade" entered a more complex phase. The administration’s focus on 10% credit card interest rate caps and aggressive tariff rhetoric created a "Risk-Off" undertone that favored defensives over growth for most of the week.

• S&P 500: Closed Friday at 6,915.61, eking out a minor gain after a late-week recovery but remaining roughly flat for the period.
• The Banking Drag: Financials took a hit mid-week following the White House proposal to cap credit card rates. JPMorgan (JPM) and Capital One (COF) saw significant volatility as investors weighed the impact on net interest margins.
• The Greenland Premium: Geopolitical uncertainty regarding Denmark and NATO led to a spike in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which touched 4.23%, acting as a localized ceiling for tech valuations.

📊 NASDAQ: AI Resilience vs. Intel’s Anchor

The tech-heavy index saw a violent divergence as "Legacy Tech" stalled and the memory supercycle accelerated.

• Intel (INTC) Slump: Plunged 12.1% this week. A weak outlook and loss of data center market share have investors questioning the turnaround.
• The "Storage is Gold" Trade: Memory is the new oil.
  • SanDisk (SNDK): Hit a fresh high of $509.50; remains the S&P 500’s top YTD performer despite Friday profit-taking ($473.83).
  • Western Digital (WDC): Gained over 30% in January, peaking at $243.29 on insatiable enterprise NAND demand.
  • Micron (MU): Rose 5.4% to $399.26 as HBM shortages create a critical bottleneck for AI racks.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Rebounded to $187.67. Despite Chinese customs blocking H200 shipments on Jan 19th, shares rallied as buyers sought workarounds and the market priced in the Vera Rubin platform tailwinds.

🏛️ Macro Driver: The Fed Dividend

The market is currently pricing in a "divided" Federal Reserve. While Chair Powell released an assertive video defending the Fed's independence on Sunday night, the market has shifted to expect fewer rate cuts in 2026 due to the stimulative (and inflationary) nature of recent fiscal policy.

• GDP Growth: Q3 data revised upward to 4.3%, proving the U.S. consumer is still the world’s primary engine.
• Consumer Sentiment: Friday’s data showed a slight dip, as the "10% Credit Cap" news created confusion regarding credit availability.

💰 Gold & Crypto: The Flight to Safety

This was the week the "Hard Asset" thesis truly went parabolic.

• Gold & Silver Explode: Gold futures are knocking on the door of $5,000/oz, closing Friday near $4,983. Silver followed suit, nearing the historic $100 mark. The driver? A combination of dollar skepticism and the "Greenland" geopolitical risk.
• Bitcoin (BTC): After a scary dip below $89,000 on Tuesday/Wednesday, BTC reclaimed the $91,000 level by Friday's close. We are seeing a "lead-lag" pattern: Gold breaks out first, and BTC follows once the "digital gold" narrative catches up to the physical move.

📅 The Week Ahead: Big Tech Judgement (Jan 26 – Jan 30)

Next week, the focus shifts from the White House to Silicon Valley as the "Magnificent" earnings begin in earnest.

• Tuesday, Jan 27: Microsoft (MSFT) & Alphabet (GOOGL) – All eyes on "AI ROI" (Return on Investment).
• Thursday, Jan 29: Apple (AAPL) & Amazon (AMZN) – The first look at the "Inauguration Year" consumer spending.
• Friday, Jan 30: PCE Inflation Data – The Fed’s preferred metric.

🔍 What This Means for Aartha Traders

1. Don't Fight the Metals: The move in Gold and Silver is no longer just a hedge; it’s a momentum trend. Stay long GDXU but move your stops to the Jan 19th lows.
2. Intel is a Warning: The "AI Boom" is not lifting all boats. Avoid legacy hardware names that aren't showing clear HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) or Blackwell-era integration.
3. The $92,000 BTC Trigger: If Bitcoin can close a daily candle above $92,000, we expect a rapid move toward $100k as it attempts to close the performance gap with Gold.

📥 Final Word

We are one year into the "America First 2.0" era, and the market's initial honeymoon phase is transitioning into a regime of high-volatility "mercantilism." 2026 is rewarding the agile and punishing the passive. Keep your position sizes manageable as we head into the heart of Big Tech earnings.

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