📈 Aartha Weekly Market Newsletter - Dec 14th, 2025

Date: Week of Dec 15 – Dec 19, 2025

Welcome to your Aartha Weekly Market Update. The Fed delivered, but the market flinched. We now enter a critical week of "missing data" and options expiration. Let’s break it down.

Note: Aartha’s performance are listed based on Aartha’s Daily Signals (our most popular subscription)

🌐 U.S. Markets Overview

The "Binary Event" week is behind us, and the result was a classic "Sell the News" reaction. The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but the celebration was muted. Why? Because the market has shifted its anxiety from inflation to recession.

• The Vibe Shift: The narrative has moved from "Rate cuts are bullish" to "Why are they cutting?" The weak economic data is no longer just a catalyst for liquidity; it’s becoming a warning sign for earnings growth.

📊 NASDAQ: The "Fatigue" Set In (-1.2% this week)

After a roaring start to December, the tech-heavy index took a breather. The "Sell the News" reaction to Broadcom's earnings dragged down the semiconductor complex, putting a temporary lid on the AI rally.

• Semiconductors: Broadcom (AVGO) beat earnings but slid 4.5% on guidance, pulling the sector down with it. Nvidia (NVDA) held up better but is consolidating.
  • Aartha’s Top Performers: SOXL(33% profits) AVGO(7.2% profits) & MU(18% profits)
  • Watchlist: Avoid for now. Wait for dust to settle
• Tech Giants (The Safety Trade): Capital rotated slightly from high-beta hardware back into "quality" software and services. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) outperformed as investors sought fortress balance sheets ahead of the delayed jobs report.
  • Key Aartha Signal Update: META(6% profits) Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a hold.
• Quantum Computing: As warned last week, the "Dead Cat Bounce" faded. These high-beta names (IONQ, QBTS) suffered as risk appetite waned post-Fed.
  • Strategy: Avoid for now. Wait for the dust to settle.

Overall Trend: Neutral/Consolidation. The trend is still upward, but the momentum has stalled.

🌿 Cannabis Sector: The Volatility King (+54.2% on Friday)

While tech wobbled, the "Weeds" sector exploded. Following months of stagnation, the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) saw a massive short squeeze and speculative surge on Friday, Dec 12th, triggered by renewed rumors regarding federal rescheduling.

• Price Action: MSOS surged from a weekly low of $3.61 to close at $5.80 (+54.2% daily gain).
• Top Multi-State Operators (MSOs): Green Thumb (GTBIF) and Trulieve (TCNNF) led the charge as institutional "dark pool" accumulation finally hit the tape.
• Aartha Signal Performance: MSOS (51% profits) CGC (73% profits) ABC(19% profits).
• Strategy: CAUTION. This is a high-beta, news-driven move. After a 50%+ candle, the risk of a "gap-fill" to the downside is high. Move trailing stops up significantly to lock in gains.

🏛️ Macro Driver: The "Missing" Report Arrives

This is the main event. The BLS Non-Farm Payrolls report, delayed from early December, drops this Tuesday, Dec 16.

• The Stakes: After the ADP report showed a shock loss of 32k jobs, the market is bracing for a negative print.
• The Scenarios:
  • Negative Print (< 0 jobs): Recession fears spike. Stocks dip, Gold rockets.
  • Soft Positive (0 - 100k): Goldilocks. Good for stocks (Fed was right to cut).
  • Hot Print (> 200k): Confusion. Yields spike, tech sells off.

💰 Gold: The Breakout Star

Gold was the unequivocal winner of Fed Week. As tech wobbled, money poured into the yellow metal.

• Price Action: Gold smashed through resistance, currently trading near $4,300/oz.
• Drivers: The Fed cut + Recession fears = The Perfect Storm for Gold.
• Aartha Signal Performance: GDXU (23% profits in just 3 days) 
• Strategy: HOLD. Do not sell your insurance policy while the house is still smoking. Trailing stops should be moved up to protect gains.

🪙 Crypto Market: Stuck at the Ceiling

Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $94k level and was rejected sharply, currently hovering around $89k.

• The Dynamic: Crypto is struggling to find a narrative. It didn't get the "liquidity pump" pop from the Fed cut that many hoped for, likely because the cut was "priced in."
• Aartha Warning: We are seeing "distribution" patterns (selling into strength). Without a reclaim of $92k, the short-term trend is leaning bearish.
• Overall Trend: Neutral-to-Bearish (Short Term).

📅 The Week Ahead: Data & Expiration (Dec 15–19)

We are flying into "Triple Witching" week (quarterly options expiration), which usually guarantees volatility.

Tuesday, Dec 16:

• 🚨 BLS Non-Farm Payrolls (The Delayed Report): 8:30 AM ET.
  • Note: This is the single most important data point of the month.

Wednesday, Dec 17:

• CPI Inflation Data: Usually a headliner, but takes a backseat to the Jobs Report this time.

Friday, Dec 19:

• Triple Witching: Massive options expiry. Expect erratic price action and volume spikes at the close.

🔍 What This Means for Aartha Traders

1. Respect the "Tuesday Risk": Do not add aggressive new "Long" positions in Tech before Tuesday morning. The Jobs Report is a coin flip.
2. Gold is the Primary Play: The trend in Gold is clearer and stronger than Tech right now. If the jobs report is bad, Gold goes higher. If it's good, Gold might dip (buy the dip).
3. Tighten Stops on Tech: If the S&P 500 loses the 5,850 level, the "Sell the News" correction could deepen.
4. Cash is a Position: It is okay to sit on the sidelines until Tuesday 9:00 AM. Let the market show its hand first.

📥 Final Word

The "Fed Pivot" is official, but the market is now asking, "At what cost?" We are transitioning from a liquidity-driven rally to a growth-fearing chop. The delayed Jobs Report on Tuesday will answer the question: Soft Landing or Hard Landing?

Stay nimble.